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    Important disclosures, including a list of companies mentioned in which WRH+Co maintains a market, has been a managing or comanaging underwriter for, and/or has privately placed securities within the past three years.
     
    Past research reports should not be relied upon for any purpose. Research reports speak only as of the date of the issuance of the report, and at any time thereafter may no longer be factually accurate and may not reflect our analyst’s current opinion on any security.

    11.09.07 

    brl: SOFT Q3 TOPLINE SPOOKS STREET; GLOBALIZATION STRATEGY WORKING, TRADING AT JUST 2X '08 SALES; IS TEVA SNIFFING AROUND? GERMANY EMERGES AS NEW EUROPEAN GENERIC BATTLEGROUND
    We believe that Specialty Pharma is ripe for massive consolidation and Barr Pharmaceuticals is in an ideal position to be a near-term buyer and potential seller next year, which when the dust settles is the reason to still own BRL stock heading into 2008. The headline top-line miss appears to be largely due to Europe taking all of August off, but this caught investors by surprise pushing BRL stock down 5% yesterday. So here we go again. Barr appears to be managing its new global business seemingly on track to accomplish its objectives of improving its balance sheet, divesting non strategic assets, adding a new growth driver in the largest European market, Germany, enjoying the benefits of the eastern Europe tailwind growth story, but getting its first experience of the extended European vacation with a soft sequential seasonal decline. Following such a strong Q2 that handily beat estimates, it was understandable that investors may have concluded that Barr was well ahead of plan in integrating PLIVA, with some expecting management to guide to the high end of the $3.00 to $3.30 range, but the revised $3.10 to $3.20 range following a soft Q3 and some unfavorable mix-shift and margin trends were not going to get shrugged off in this market. Q3 marks the end of the last apples to oranges comparisons, which we view as a buying opportunity based on this weakness although not necessarily this month. When Barr reports Q4 results in late February, investors should see the first y/y comparisons of the PLIVA generic business and the underlying top-line growth in these markets, which is substantially greater than the U.S. Barr's current position reminds us of the first year after IVAX bought several Latin American assets which Wall Street had no clue how to value and viewed as largely negative and a drag on growth. Ditto on IVAX's acquisitions in the Czech Republic and Poland. While many investors bailed, TEVA (TEVA: Buy) was sniffing around knowing the strategic value of IVAX's globalization story. So is TEVA sniffing around again while investors bail out of Barr's stock? Perhaps, but perhaps nearer term, Barr may be sniffing around the only remaining publicly traded transdermal manufacturer in Miami to launch a potential generic Evra, the contraceptive patch that a few of us thought of in a bar in San Francisco in 1993 and sold to Johnson & Johnson (JNJ: Not Rated) a year later. This would appear to be a highly strategic priority for Barr to keep growing its woman's health franchise. We are increasing our 2007 EPS estimate from $3.15 to $3.17, but bringing down our 2008 estimate from $3.65 to $3.50, with a bit of caution on margins as the mix-shift towards PLIVA coupled with moderating U.S. growth potentially limiting near-term earnings growth. Contact Us for Full Report - PDF

     

    08.09.07 

    brl: POST PLIVA VISIBILITY IMPROVES; RAISING ESTIMATES, TARGET PRICE TO $63; H2 MARGIN EXPANSION SUPPORTS P/E EXPANSION
    BRL's 5% bump today is hardly a surprise to us for both fundamentals - nice beat on top and bottom line and upward margin and lower tax guidance which may provide a needed glimpse of Barr's new P&L in 2008 -- and scarcity of mid-cap alternatives leveraged to global generic growth and call option (still free) on biogenerics. Trading at 18x our 2007 EPS of $3.15 (and just 15x our $3.65 2008 estimate, which we are raising from $3.50), BRL still trades at significant discount to Watson (WPI: Hold) and 15% below TEVA (TEVA: Buy) trading at 20x, which is about where BRL should be trading, in our view. And lest we forget some other dynamics going on - investors fleeing from Forest (FRX: Sell) and Mylan (MYL), as well as WPI - we believe have relatively few choices with blue chip management, improving visibility and trading 10% below their peers. So BRL works right now, in our view. Beyond getting comfortable on Pliva integration, (likely still a major reason keeping investors on the sidelines for much of the past 12 months), we see two significant trends that suggest our 2008 estimate might be too low at $3.50, where we increase our 2008 estimate to $3.65 EPS by adjusting our gross margin estimates: 1) margin expansion: Brand gross margins showed great sequential gains with Plan B (now at $100M run-rate with guidance at $80M) and Seasonique lifting GM by 1000 bp to 78% (from just 66% in Q1) and generic gross margins are improving (up 500 bp to 49%) as Eastern European manufacturing COGS savings are beginning to appear as New Jersey production is winding down; and 2) a lower tax rate moving toward 30% (low end of guidance) as Barr moves operations to Croatia out of New Jersey. The proven CFO (who Wall Street effectively told to prove himself again) Mr. McKee, seemingly content with the progress of this bold move that took the Street by surprise, calmly assured that these margin expansion trends would continue over the balance of 2007 (and that Barr could afford to spend another $10M on R&D) and still finish comfortably within EPS guidance (unchanged at $3.00-3.30), but almost certainly expected toward the higher end. If these trends are visible now, then we can infer that 2008 forecasts are easier for Barr as well, which suggests cash EPS guidance in 2008 should put our $3.65 estimate on the low-end of guidance. So net-net: BRL had become a 'show me' stock post the Pliva announcement and, in our view, and Barr has showed it can make Pliva work, while rejuvenating the U.S. brand business and let's not forget - stocking the patent challenge pipeline which represent free call option upsides, in our view. Contact Us for Full Report - PDF

     

    05.09.07 

    brl: BEATING LOW EXPECTATIONS, PLIVA GLOBALIZATION STRATEGY ALREADY WORKING, BUT 'MANY MOVING PARTS-LOWERING TARGET
    Beating expectations is what it's all about and BRL delivered this today, so should investors sell in May and go away? That may be the safe trade, but a closer examination (which ain't easy) suggests that BRL's globalization strategy via Pliva may be paying off sooner than expected and even management (which may have been holding its breath when it gave guidance in February) sees the strategic and financial benefits coming sooner than expected. Is there clear sailing ahead now? We don't think so, but even the most cynical investor (and by today's short covering there may have been more than a few) would have to acknowledge that BRL's management team, historically highly regarded, but certainly unproven outside the U.S. has made considerable progress from organizational realignment, moving rapidly to shed underperforming non-strategic assets as evidenced by its decision to shut down its animal health business in Spain (impacting Q1) and diagnostics operation in Italy (likely in Q2), transfer of manufacturing from NJ to Poland and Croatia, reprioritization of R&D and building its new strategic (generic biologics) weapon outside Zagreb. Adjusted EPS, which added $0.65 EPS-most from Pliva integration activities including an adjusted 27% tax-rate (way down from BRL's historic high 30s tax rate)-provides a glimpse of the new Barr. As we are just six months into Pliva integration with limited value of year-over-year comparisons (13% EBITDA growth perhaps the one exception), we suggest investors consider the relative strategic positioning of BRL relative to where the stock is trading (17X low-end of guidance) vs. its peers (WPI, the best pure comp also in the S&P, trading at 24X cash EPS). We conclude that BRL's vision and strategy are worth paying a premium, but with 'many moving parts', investors may expect (as evident in the past six months) turbulence in getting there. In short, this is the desired destination, but execution risk remains ahead (BRL may have found the low hanging fruit and now comes the harder part) which suggests a higher discount rate and lower P/E multiple, at least for now. We are therefore lowering our target price from $63 to $58 and applying a 19 P/E multiple to our 2007 EPS estimate of $3.05, up a nickel and at low-end of $3.00 to $3.30 guidance which remains unchanged. In conclusion, BRL's strategy is working and Q1 demonstrated meaningful progress which encourages investors to stay. But at this juncture, going away may be ok too. Contact Us for Full Report - PDF

     

    02.28.07 

    brl: PINBALL WIZARDS: PLIVA GYRATES P&L AND STOCK, BUT STRATEGIC TRANSFORMATION IMPROVES OUTLOOK: BONUS POINTS FROM PATENT CHALLENGES, BIOGENERIC PRIZE FREE CALL OPTION
    Forward looking investors who embrace the new pharma paradigm which Pliva provides via lower cost structure, global infrastructure to outsource manufacturing and development while insourcing biogenerics, should take advantage of today's 5% dip (which we expected) to own this proven performer which now trades at just 17X the end of 2007 cash EPS guidance ($3.00 to $3.30). While trying to follow all the repercussions through BRL's P&L has all the grace of a pinball machine, we need to remember that Bruce, Bill and his team have performed some pinball wizardry over the years. But sadly, there aren't too many of us left in this business who grew up playing pinball machines. So when management kept flipping the Q&A balls back - amortization moves from SG&A to COGS, Pliva API moves into generics, D&A and all the rest add up to $265M, and patent challenges remain bonus points on the projected $3.00 to $3.30 cash EPS (back end loaded) on top line of $2.5-$2.6B with lower tax rates and integration synergies not expected until '08 and beyond, there might have been just a few out there playing pinball with their models that lost the ball down the chute. OK, so near-term visibility this may not be, but this is the strategic transformation that should play out over the next few years, and these are the pinball wizards - who have scored more bonus points and free games than their peers. So where do we come out on all this? With all these new financial pinballs bouncing around at once, one could argue for a lower P/E, but with management's track record for scoring bonus points and improved strategic position should warrant a higher multiple. With BRL now trading at a discount to the group (yes, can you believe it, even WPI), the market is pricing in the lower pinball multiple which we find a compelling entry point. We are lowering our target price from $75 to $63 applying a 18 P/E multiple to our new 2008 EPS estimate of $3.50 and using BRL low-end $3.00 EPS guidance for 2007. Contact Us for Full Report - PDF

     

    08.16.06 

    brl: STRONG Q4 TOPLINE ADDS TO BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED Q4 AND FY:06 EPS; POSITIVE FALLOUT FROM SETTLEMENT WITH SHIRE; PLIVA DEAL WILL BE KEY
    A strong quarter with double digit increase in generic product sales and surprising out performance by Barr's branded franchise helped to beat the Q4 consensus EPS of $0.73 by 3 cents, as well as our estimates on the top and bottom line. With a diversified product line, Barr's diversification provides it with favorable strategic position which delivers quarters like this. Barr's settlement with Shire was also positive news, monetizing another product opportunity, though we believe Shire may be the big winner overall in this win-win scenario. Barr continues to hold a strong strategic position in the generics market, which we expect to be further strengthened by the pending Pliva acquisition in 2H:06. We believe Pliva will be immediately accretive to Barr post acquisition, ranking it second among its peers as we assess strategic positioning for the generic space. With continued strong growth expected and additional momentum from the Pliva deal further solidifying growth, we reiterate our Buy rating on the shares. Contact Us for Full Report - PDF

     

    08.01.06 

    brl: PLAN B GOES OTC, BUT PLAN A SHOULD BE SETTLING WITH SHIRE, THEN MOVE ON TO PLIVA PLAN C EXECUTION
    If Plan B going OTC can move BRL stock, imagine what Plan A, settling with Shire (SHPGY: Buy) on the Adderall XR patent challenge might do. We believe the paradox with this story is that getting Plan B to go OTC might be worth, at best, 2% of FY:07 EPS and yet Barr has been pushing the FDA and all of the political buttons around town to get this done over the past three years, which we applaud. Meanwhile, there is an unsigned settlement agreement that has been sitting on CEO Bruce Downey's desk for nearly a year that will likely have a much larger impact on Barr's EPS; we have estimated at ~$0.30, which will soon expire like worthless options, if Barr doesn't sign soon. Why? NRP104 PDUFA is now just two months away, with the trial set to start in late October, which even if Barr were to win, (which we believe is highly unlikely - Impax Labs had the better case and settled in January), it would be unlikely until well into the Adderall XR to NRP104 switch, which we expect to begin its launch around the end of this year. This means Barr's hand will only get much weaker (Citizen Petition is blocking generic approvals) in the coming months, in our view. Sure, Pliva has been a major unexpected distraction with powerful strategic implications, but for the near-term, we believe the Wall Street crowd won't do a thing to help growth for at least a year and perhaps longer given all the inherent integration issues of any acquisition; Barr knows how to move its headquarters down the Garden State Parkway a few exits from NY into NJ. But Zagreb, Croatia? We understand the major delay in formally making its $2B bid to buy Pliva was not crunching the numbers, but finding the company on the map! Nobody applauds the long-term potential value of the Pliva deal more than us (we highlight our strategic analysis from our June 27 note below), but now that the bankers have lined up the $2.8B line of credit (not so cheap with interest rates rising), let the shareholders (and CFO Bill McKee) sleep better by taking care of Plan A - a very attractive revenue and EPS stream (that is pro-competitive as we reiterate from our 07/31/06 Shire note) that should make digesting Pliva a lot easier - before it's too late, in our view. Contact Us for Full Report - PDF

     

    06.27.06 

    brl: KUDOS FOR KUNAS! PLIVA ACCELERATES BIOGENERICS STRATEGY: AMGN'S $7B EPO/G-CSF TARGET IN SIGHT; JERSEY GUYS GO GLOBAL; DIVERSIFICATION, LOW COST STRUCTURE SUPPORT SUSTAINABLE GROWTH STRATEGY; STRATEGIC POSITION RISES 70%; INTRINSIC VALUE WORTH 20% MORE TODAY, 70% MORE BY 2008
    Barr's intrinsic value should be worth 20% more today than yesterday as we conclude that management can now realistically add an additional $300 million in operating income by 2010 via biogenerics that it could not achieve without Pliva. Discounting the 2010 impact back to today by 30% per annum and applying an incremental 50% operating margin to about $200M in discounted revenues would add about $100M in operating income or about 20% higher than the current $500M run-rate. Oversimplified? Perhaps. How about a 70% rise in BRL's Strategic Position arising from biogenerics, vertical integration, globalization and market share gains? What's that worth? (TEVA realized IVX was worth 2X its value last year when strategic positioning was considered, so it's not too soon to consider what the new BRL may bring to someone else in a few years). For investors who share our future state of 2010 whereby biogenerics will find their way into the U.S. (and both EPO and G-CSF biogenerics should launch in Europe in 2007), this framework is hardly a stretch. Considering that Teva and Sandoz are the only other realistic biogeneric players over the next five years and factoring in BRL's regulatory and legislative expertise, the Pliva acquisition which comes with two late stage biogenerics targeting $7B brand sales and all the development and manufacturing infrastructure that BRL lacked, formally puts BRL into the largest growth, highest margin, biggest pharmaceutical savings category left. In short, we believe the Holy Grail is within reach and is worth paying for and the same valuation methodologies that investors use to discount future sales and earnings that have supported valuations of DNA, AMGN and more recently AMLN should be applied to BRL in reverse. Near-term valuation methodology suggests upside to '07 and '08 earnings as the impact of expanded pipeline, new growth in Eastern Europe and the realization of lower cost structure in R&D, manufacturing and tax rates gained by this globalization strategy should more than offset potentially weaker U.S. growth in Barr's core generic and brand businesses. We applaud this most visionary of all Barr's strategic initiatives as the culmination of a decade of transformation fueled by a highly successful patent challenge strategy that brought big pharma to its knees and may now soon cripple the growth prospects of big biotech as well. Contact Us for Full Report - PDF

     

    05.12.06 

    brl: PATENT CHALLENGER CHALLENGED; CHALLENGING GROWTH AHEAD; SHPGY, NRPH BENEFICIARIES AS BRUCE MORE LIKELY TO FOLD HIS ADDERALL XR HAND; BRL CHEAP, BUT TEVA BETTER
    Many BRL investors were looking for an excuse to sell, already nervous about next fiscal year growth as they always are this time of year. Today, they got it. By our analysis, the stock appears capturing what we estimate could be about a $0.25 EPS negative impact (20 P/E = $5) to F'07 which assumes about a $50M shortfall in the projected Seasonale/Seasonique franchise which we estimated could approach $150M in F'07. However, BRL stock has been retreating for some time and pulled back more after WPI indicated it planned to launch generic Seasonale later this year. Given BRL's strong performance and management's ability to generic growth from many sources over the past decade, BRL now trades at a steep discount to our F'07 EPS estimate of $3.46, which even if we lowered to reflect the loss of Seasonale would still be trading around 15X. So, there appears to be limited downside for BRL stock from here on a valuation basis, but as far as sentiment goes, that's another matter. Alternatives? Sure: SHPGY and NRPH appear positive derivatives as we believe this puts added pressure for BRL to settle the Adderall XR patent challenge sooner and take the money (we estimate about $0.30 - just about what the downside from today's news might be) and run. Without generic Adderall XR until 2008, we estimate 20% to 2007 to around $3.00 (from $2.50) for SHPGY and a similar 20% upside impact to NRPH as well. This suggests that if BRL and SHPGY settle in the next few months as we have always expected anyway (not if, but when), then SHPGY stock could trade to $56 and NRPH could reach $40. Alternatively, best of breed TEVA looks cheap here after its 15% correction. Contact Us for Full Report - PDF

     

    05.05.06 

    brl: Q3 FINE; ADJUSTING ESTIMATES PER GUIDANCE; STOCK WEAKNESS ON DECELERATING GROWTH; F2007 GROWTH UNCERTAINTY; MAINTAINING BUY RATING AND $75 PRICE TARGET
    Nervous Nellies worried about a few pennies and concerned about F2007 are doing the same thing they did last spring. We believe they are bailing and waiting to come back once Barr stands up and provides F2007 guidance (which typically comes around Labor Day). Yes, they are selling in May and going away. That is the opportunity for those who have come to know that Barr keeps delivery fueled by the transformational momentum of the 2000 Prozac patent challenge that has fueled a decade of growth (there are four more years left). Who cares that management narrowed guidance and shaved the high end by $0.02? What we know is that they are saving the upside in the bag (which includes the Shire (SHPGY: Buy) settlement which should be worth at least $0.30 in F2007). For Barr to grow 20% in F2007 or around $3.60, it only needs to find another 10% (Actiq should help starting in December) and there is now over $600M to spend to acquire complementary products to fold into the business and get some help from current product growth and a handful of approvals from the now 46 ANDA/NDAs on file at the FDA. So guess what? Barr is managing sustainable earnings growth, which is a sign that the company has matured into a stable growth stock that should command a premium multiple, in our view. But after yesterday's 5% pullback, BRL now trades at just 18x F2006E, a discount to - can you believe this! - Watson (WPI: Hold). Sure, FQ4 may be sequentially down and y/y growth flat. But we have seen this movie before, haven't we? Investors who were buying BRL shares last summer while sellers questioned how F2006 growth may now have a similar opportunity as BRL stock enters what is essentially seasonal weakness in front of another fiscal year where we do not have precise clarity on how we will get 20% growth next year. Finally, with blue chip stocks trading at discounts to growth, we believe that Barr may soon show up as one of the most attractive growth and value names. Contact Us for Full Report - PDF

     

    02.07.06 

    brl: SOLID QUARTER, STRONG GROWTH AND VISIBILITY; RAISING PRICE TARGET TO $75
    We believe Barr's strong FQ2 results demonstrate the strength of its diversified business, with strong brand product growth, steady generic product performance, and solid contributions from alliance revenue resulting from monetization of its paragraph IV challenges. We continue to believe a settlement with Shire on Adderall XR represents the next potential catalyst, which we expect could come before Shire's earnings call on February 23, and could add roughly $0.30 in EPS to CY2006 and CY2007. Based on the strong quarter, we are raising our F2006 EPS estimate by $0.05 to $3.15, consistent with management's raised guidance and at the high end of the guidance range. Visibility of growth is increasing for Barr's strong core business and continued upside from patent challenges, and we are raising our price target on the shares from $70 to $75, based on 20X our newly introduced CY07 EPS estimate of $3.77. With IVX now acquired by TEVA, we believe Barr represents the only mid cap blue chip generic company to own with a strong quality pipeline (34 ANDA's pending) and a favorable strategic position. Contact Us for Full Report - PDF

     

    02.02.06 

    brl: REACHES SETTLEMENT WITH CEPHALON
    Yesterday, Teva (TEVA: Buy) and Cephalon (CEPH: Not Rated) announced a settlement agreement on litigation involving Cephalon's Provigil ($540 million in annual sales) and Actiq ($400 million in annual sales). In after market trading, the market applauded for what this did for Cephalon, with Barr representing the fourth and last generic challenger yet to settle on Provigil. For Barr, this deal reflects the company's ability to monetize patent challenges and create a win-win situation. On the surface, we do not have visibility on the terms of the deal, though we expect modest earnings upside to F2006 and F2007 estimates, and await details on the company's earnings call next week (Tuesday, February 7 at 8:30 AM). In that the 30-month stay on Adderall XR ends later this month, the next catalyst for BRL shares should be a settlement with Shire (SHPGY: Buy). With IVAX off the screen, Barr represents the only mid-cap blue chip generic company to own with a strong quality pipeline and favorable strategic position, in our view. Contact Us for Full Report - PDF

     

    01.05.06 

    brl: ARMORED BARR SHOULD ACQUIRE MORE GROWTH DRIVERS IN 2006; RAISING PRICE TARGET TO $70
    We believe Barr remains a name to own in the generic space with projected EPS acceleration and favorable comps, and we remain at the high end of the company's reiterated guidance range, which does not include the potential upside from patent challenges - a settlement deal with Shire (SHPGY: Buy) on Adderall XR could be the next patent challenge 'win'. Barr continues to trade at just under 20x our CY:06 EPS estimate of $3.25, which if we apply this P/E to our FY:07 EPS estimate of $3.57, reaches our new price target of $70. We continue to expect a Shire-Barr Adderall XR settlement. With the court date pushed back until March, both parties have time to play poker for a while longer, though we wouldn't be surprised if Barr and Shire (both presenting in San Francisco on Tuesday, January 10) chose to announce a settlement of Adderall XR, which could take both stocks up ~5% by our estimates. As we have mentioned before, Barr is focused on FY:07 growth for which we suspect there are other options beyond its patent challenge portfolio. Contact Us for Full Report - PDF

     

    11.01.05 

    brl: BARR REPORTS SOLID FQ1 EARNINGS
    We view FQ1 results as a solid, high quality quarter, with Barr coming in ahead of consensus by a penny with in-line total revenues, favorable gross margins, as well as transparent and very conservative accounting, as the $0.78 reported EPS actually included a $0.02 non-recurring indemnification charge related to the Teva deal on generic Allegra, and $6.8 million in stock compensation charges. Revenues from generic Allegra sales were strong in the quarter, well ahead of our estimate, reflecting a strong launch and favorable pricing, and are expected to continue to be a substantial contributor for most of F2006. While brand sales were light due to stocking the previous quarter, the outlook remains favorable with solid Rx trends and management's expectation for 10% growth for the full year. We believe Barr remains a name to own in the generic space with projected EPS acceleration and favorable comps, and we remain at the high end of the company's reiterated guidance range, which does not include the potential upside from patent challenges (a settlement deal with Shire on Adderall XR could be the next patent challenge 'win'). Barr continues to trade at a compelling valuation, in our view, at just 18x our calendar 2006 EPS estimate, versus 20x for the group, and we reiterate our Buy rating on the shares and $65 price target, or 20x our CY2006 EPS estimate of $3.25. Contact Us for Full Report - PDF

     

    10.18.05 

    brl: BARR EXPANDS WOMEN'S HEALTH FRANCHISE WITH ACQUISITION
    This morning, Barr announced that it had entered into an agreement to acquire FEI Women's Health for $281.5 million, with the deal expected to close before calendar year end. The driver of the deal was FEI's ParaGard T380A intrauterine device (IUD), which had $48 million in sales in 2004 and is approved for the continuous prevention of pregnancy for up to 10 years. We view the deal favorably as a strategic acquisition that expands Barr's Women's Health offerings and leverages its current specialty sales force. While the price paid was not cheap relative to ParaGard's current sales, we believe the market potential of the product is much higher than its current run rate, and expect Barr to be able to ramp sales of the product relatively quickly. With its strong cash position and the earnings flexibility provided by recent monetization of its patent challenge pipeline, we believe Barr is in a favorable position to grow its product pipeline as opportunities arise and improve its longer-term earnings growth prospects, without hurting near-term performance, as evidenced by the neutral impact of this acquisition to F'06 earnings. Barr's diversified brand and generic business and additional patent challenge opportunities which represent upside to estimates (we believe a settlement with Shire on Adderall XR could come by year end or early 2006) provide it a favorable strategic position and continued strong earnings growth prospects, and we reiterate our Buy rating on the shares and $65 price target, which we arrive at by applying a 20 P/E multiple to our C2006 EPS estimate of $3.25 (our F2006 estimate remains unchanged at $3.10). Contact Us for Full Report - PDF

     

    09.30.05 

    brl: THE GOOD, THE BAD AND THE UGLY - BARR BRINGS 'EM ON
    We are initiating coverage of Barr Laboratories, Inc. with a Buy recommendation and $65 price target, which we arrive at by applying a 20 P/E multiple to our C2006 EPS estimate of $3.25 (our F2006 estimate is $3.10). Trading at 16x estimated CY:06 EPS, the market is currently assigning BRL a discount to its peers, while Barr continues to offer sustainable growth averaging 20% with lots of upside. We suspect investors will pay up for the 'good' - top line growth and high margins from brand business, but discount any upside from taking on the 'bad', political issues from Plan B to biogenerics where no regulatory framework yet exists, and have trouble valuing the 'ugly' - upside earnings from its patent challenge portfolio which has become a more predictable stream of settlements with longer earnings streams. Contact Us for Full Report - PDF